Should we get rid of predicted grades?

By Sue Smith

Each year, as exam results arrive, there are calls for the system to be changed. In particular, this is the system where students who have failed to meet their offers based on predicted grades are now using the system of Clearing. The calls for change are generally around the idea that predicted grades are inaccurate and unfair and students should apply for university admission based on their actual grades. In Australia, this is what happens. University entrance is decided after the results are released. Even in Hong Kong, real grades count for a lot when it comes to getting a place.

So could the UK system change to cut out predicted grades, and if they do this, will it be a disadvantage for Hong Kong students trying to gain admission to a UK university?

I think the answers are, yes, the system should change and no, it probably won’t be a disadvantage to Hong Kong students.

There is a lot of pressure on schools to give accurate predicted grades – this pressure comes from the school and from the universities. There is also a lot of pressure on schools to give inflated grades so a student can receive an offer. But of course a student then needs to receive that grade if they are to meet their offer. It seems that it would be a lot easier if the results came out first then students applied. There might need to be some tweaking to the school term so the exams could end earlier and possibly to the university term so it could begin in October. But these are small problems and ones which other countries have overcome.

Anyone who has been involved with the agonising system of predicted grades would probably agree that assessing a student on their actual achievements rather than on an educated guess would be beneficial to the student.

And there is no point saying that exams don’t suit everyone and not a fair method of universal assessment because when using predicted grades, it is assumed a student will be able to perform in the exam since the real grades will be important.